Origin and evolution of COVID 19 – Statistical mathematical study (Italy)

Foreward

This is not a medical analysis and is not intended to replace the medical-scientific investigations in progress.
This is a statistical analysis of data relating to COVID 19. Specifically, the trend of hospitalized and intensive care cases in Italy is analyzed.

Since the beginning of the pandemic due to COVID 19, at the end of February 2020, I began, out of pure instinct of curiosity, to trace the curves by noting the numbers of infected people communicated by the daily bulletin of civil protection.

Every day I was saddened to point out the number of sick people which was increasing more and more.
I wondered if the Gaussian curve would peak and when this would happen.

Manual tracking of the pandemic curve of ICU cases starting March 12, 2020 – lockdown first week tracking

I observed the Wuhan curve and documented myself.
What I have deduced is that in about 4 weeks the virus has grown exponentially.

The origin of it all was on December 2, 2019, when at the fish market, in the area of the sale of live animals, a family (husband, wife and child) sold a bat in a cage.

Bats are considered the main reservoirs of coronaviruses: different types of coronaviruses have been identified in bats, including the human coronavirus that causes the common flu. However, bat coronaviruses do not cause serious infections in humans. Pets can also be infected with coronavirus, but in most cases it causes a mild intestinal infection and none of the pet coronaviruses have ever been identified as a cause of infection in humans.

Let’s go back to the Wuhan live animal market. In addition to bats, there are several species of animals on sale. Among the animals for sale there are also pangolins, endangered animals, renowned for their scales.
It is possible that the ‘zero family’; sold both: the bat and the pangolin.
It is also likely that both were placed in a cage.
In the same cage.
Since the genome of the pangolin is very similar to the human one, I suppose that the passage of the virus from the bat – probably infected – to the pangolin was immediate.

Pangolin – Mammal of the Pholidoti order

After a while, the family fell ill and all three members died.
An outbreak developed in the market that grew exponentially, until the Chinese government approved the closure of the Wuhan market.
But how could the virus have been transmitted, from pangolin to man?
My investigations, from a biological point of view, led me to the discovery that the pangolin, in addition to having a genome very similar to ours, is a territorial animal that marks the territory by emitting an odorous acid from glands located near the anus.
In my opinion, the explosion of the virus may have originated precisely from the flatulent emissions of the small scaly animal.
For this reason, I am quite convinced that the virus can also be transmitted through cigarette smoke and that, in addition to their coughing and sneezing, also the fumes of infected smokers can be a very dangerous vehicle for transmitting COVID 19.

In a flash the distances have been zeroed and evil has crossed the whole world.
We found that we were all the same, small, but great. With the will to fight. With the desire to start over, rediscovering that the essential is in a hug, in a smile, in dialogue, in social relationships and the only important thing to protect is life.
Based on these considerations, I decided to statistically check the data, in order to monitor pandemic growth.

Crossing point of the cumulative data curve with the one of
the daily data starting from the day of the lockdown (12.3.2020)

I crossed the Gaussian curve of the accumulated historical data, with the one related to the daily data communicated by the civil protection (represented in the column in pencil next to the green one).
I detected an average of about 4 weeks for the manifestation of the effects of the virus and, by crossing the daily data curve with the cumulative one , I forecasted the peak date on Sunday March 29, 2020 (indicated with the red arrow).
It took about 4 weeks to complete the history starting from the day before the lockdown and the actual peak date was detected on April 3, 2020 with a number of patients in intensive care equal to 4,068.

Manual tracking of the pandemic curve of ICU cases starting March 12, 2020

The virus curve had a time of manifestation in the single person of about 4 weeks. The Gaussian curve plotted with the daily data starting from March 11, day of the lockdown start, which began with +277 daily cases in intensive care and 1028 cumulative ones , ran then out within 4 weeks, starting from the day of the peak, after about 4 weeks, on May 10, 2020, with 1027 cases detected.
The same applies to the curve for hospitalized cases, not in intensive care.
The Gaussian curve relevant to hospitalized cases has risen exponentially exactly with the times of the Gaussian curve plotted for patients in intensive care.

Manual tracking of the pandemic curve of hospitalized cases starting March 12, 2020

The incredible peak of 28,976 hospitalized cases was reached on April 6,2020, after a period of about 4 weeks from the lockdown start..
The zone closure would not have been effective. Already on television, shortly before the lockdown, during the transmission of the tragic bulletins, reports were broadcast on how to overcome the barriers of national borders. An Italian woman in Paris explained live how she had helped her mother to bypass all checks, traveling by train, to reach her before giving birth… and in the meantime people were dying … and so the virus, despite the bans, was expanding exponentially …

The zone closure would not even have been effective in my opinion for another reason: each region involved would have screamed injustice and the population would probably have tried to reach an area not involved, in order not to comply with the rules, ignoring the virus that was expanding in the meantime.
Thus, within 4 weeks the curve peaked. And this happened within a month thanks to the lockdown. The only effective measure to make the population understand the gravity and extent of the pandemic. Only in this way the accumulated historical data could be absorbed and the pandemic growth was controlled, avoiding a possible health disaster. If this had not been the case, the exponential growth would probably have been out of control and health care could no longer cope with the treatment of the newly infected. Only in this way the population did understand. Otherwise the situation would have degenerated.
The virulent load is currently very low and the number of people admitted to hospital has stopped at around 750 since Friday July12, the day in which the Gaussian curve reached its minimum. Also the number of people in intensive care since July 12 stopped at about 50 units. From the traced curves it appears that there are about 800 positive sick people being treated (hospitalized + intensive care) and that this number is fixed from 12 July 2020.


FINAL CONSIDERATIONS

Unfortunately, from the second half of August, the 2 curves began to rise again, with numbers which, while leaving the number of patients in intensive care below 70 patients, are currently exceeding the 1000 infected among the hospitalized.

Actual pandemic curves

By behaving responsibly: using masks, sanitizing our hands, observing the distance, and – above all – trying to stay far away to those who smoke outdoors, I am convinced that in a short time even the numbers communicated by the media will be more reasonable and …. we will finally be able to say: “We did it!”.

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